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Loudoun County Public Schools Division of Planning & GIS Services annually forecasts student enrollment. The enrollment projections are utilized for a variety of planning and decision-making functions, of which operational and capital budgeting needs are essential.
Projections are an informed and educated estimate of future student membership. Forecast accuracy generally diminishes as the geographic area becomes smaller and the planning horizon becomes more distant. Countywide forecasts have and will be more accurate than school-level forecasts as the population being projected is much larger. This phenomenon is common to all forecasting methodologies and is expected.
LCPS Enrollment Projection Process
In 2019, Statistical Forecasting, LLC was contracted to audit LCPS' student enrollment projection methodology. Assessment of LCPS processes and practices included data sources (e.g., housing pipeline, birth data) and overall methods (e.g., cohort survival, linear regression) for projecting student enrollment. Statistical Forecasting was asked to provide a thorough evaluation of the methodology currently employed by LCPS, to identify strengths and weaknesses.
Statistical Forecasting: A Review of the LCPS Enrollment Projection Process - August 2019
Statistical Forecasting: September 10, 2019 Presentation to the School Board
September 13, 2016 School Board Meeting: Enrollment Projection Methodology (Presentation)